There are a number of ADV bikes coming out; Besides the BMW of course, there is the Triumph, and now the Yamaha...next year, apparently there will also be a Honda.
This is telling me that bike mfrs have recognized a new target customer base; Older guys like us.... past HD/cruisers, not interested in sport bikes, and willing to trade in our Sport-Tourers for the expanded capabilities of off-road. Also, price points for brand-new technology are dropping. I'm less worried about Yamaha sustainability than I am BMW price erosion (ok, I don;t really give a RA)....with the increased competition, why would a consumer shell out $5k more for a BMW, over and above the Yammy or the new Honda?
Empirically, it appears the majority of us are trading in Sport-Tourers for the ST.
I suggest the more important number to consider is of the 800 to 2,500 STs sold, (range of prior guesses) how many were sold to people who already own a Yamaha? Who own another mfr? And, who are buying a new bike because it it the ST?
If 50% of the STs sold, went to riders of other makes (I have a Honda)...that could be a significant reason for Yamaha to be pleased; Their market plan increased new bike purchases by 400 - 1250...at the expense of of the manufacturers....if that is a trend, that sounds li,ke a good product plan, Again, if 50% of units sold are sold to people who had no plans to buy another bike this soon, they stimulated purchasing in a relatively flat market.
Sounds like a good product plan to me.