Life! (corona virus, non informative, non hysterical post)

bigbob said:

So what is happening with the virus in Mexico? I cannot believe it is not there.

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Hardly a word about it. Only foreigners talking about it.

A few hotels etc have staff in masks etc but thats it.

No shortages except for drinking one resort out of both of our favorite beers.

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navynuke said:

No shortages except for drinking one resort out of both of our favorite beers.

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I am curious what are they out of?

bigbob said:

I am curious what are they out of?

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1) Cold
2) Colder

Checkswrecks said:

Split off from the Arkansas Rally thread . . .

My ex works at the same place Dr. Fauci did and says that he is known as a straight shooter who loved to walk the floors and just stay in touch with people. So far, the MD/DC/VA area where we are has 185 known cases and even with the local resources of NIH and Johns Hopkins have had 2 deaths, which is about a 1% fatality rate. The world fatality rate is currently 3.8%. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) The rate for the annual US flu losses is 0.1% which validates Dr. Fauci saying that this is about 10X the fatality rate of the regular flu. Based on that, I'm going to take his word that the risk of infection is 5X that of the regular flu. Think what you want but to me this pandemic is the real deal and sooner or later it will reach folks in small towns and other places where this currently seems overblown.

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It's way too early to estimate the fatality rate of Covid-19. That can only be done when the pandemic is over.

We will most likely see a significantly higher fatality rate than with regular flu, as the most vulnerable part of the population who usually get a flu shot, don't have that option. Among the part of the population who don't usually get a flu shot, the fatality rate might be more similar to that of a regular flu.

We also have to keep in mind, that a lot of people will die with rather than because of Covid-19, as the waste majority of fatalities worldwide is people who already suffer from another critical/deadly illness.

The capacity and quality of the healthcare system also play a big part in the equation.
Here in Denmark we now only test people for Covid-19 who are ill enough to need hospitalization. This means only a small percentage of the total number of infected are registered as such.
Even using the official numbers (which only shows a small percentage of the actual number of infected), the fatality rate is less than 0.4% at the moment here in Denmark.

It is tempting in times like these, with fear of the unknown, to give in to a degree of panic, and to assume the worst in regards to potential outcomes. As a physician, (Emergency Medicine), I have had a fascination with the history of my profession, and have studied past disease outbreaks, etc. The influenza pandemic of 1918 involved a particularly virulent strain with a significant mortality rate and infected approximately one third of the worlds population, and caused about 50 million deaths world wide. The world was in a much more difficult place at that time, having just gone through a world war, and possessing relatively primitive technology / medical care capabilities. In addition, children and young adults were especially hard hit and constituted a large percentage of the deaths. In spite of this, the world rebounded fairly quickly and society, for the most part, returned to normal, (at least for a time, until a depression, and war again returned.)

I am in a higher risk category, over 60, and still seeing patients, but would rather face this pandemic than the one in 1918. Thankfully, young people are more likely to fare well in this one, and the world is in a better state overall, and more able to cope with this one. If we keep our heads, most of us are likely to come through this well. In the meantime, continue to enjoy life, ride your bikes, and take care of yourselves.

The no open restaurants deal is definitely going to impact folks traveling abilities.

The foreign travelers we know can't find a place to stay. (Vietnam and Columbia) In some cases they have been escorted out of restaurants by police because the restaurant wouldn't serve them. (Vietnam)

I can see the US getting to this point quickly. Small hotels won't want to risk having to decontaminate if a guest is later found to be positive for CV-19 and that will move to larger chains quickly too, since they are mostly individually owned. Could be a heck of a large expense, and possibly not covered by their Insurance.

bigbob said:

So what is happening with the virus in Mexico? I cannot believe it is not there.

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A couple/few weeks ago, Karen and I were saying that it's probably just the flu and maybe we should not avoid getting it, just to get past this nonsense. Maybe it's overblown we thought. One of the things holding us back was that we are with her 86 year old Mom a lot, another is my 7 month pregnant DIL, plus the idea of "Who intentionally wants to get sick anyway?" Now that it is in the area and continually reading reports from those who have it, we're doing all the recommended stuff to avoid it.

Also at that time, we thought this wasn't much risk to our 5 kids, aged 26-32. Turns out that while the fatalities are largely the older demographic:

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a study that said about 38 percent of the 508 patients being hospitalized in the country are between 20 and 54, the New York Times reported. About 20 percent of patients, including those in intensive care, were between 20 to 44, the report said."

From: https://www.foxnews.com/health/large-portion-of-young-adults-treated-at-hospitals-for-coronavirus-report-says

Not all 20 to 44 year old people are healthy to start with. The list of conditions that make the virus worse is larger than I would have expected, and contains conditions that one would not think about increasing the risk. High blood pressure, and diabetes are "increased risk factors". To me, I would not have thought those ailments would affect breathing. But, that's why it's probably good that I'm not a doctor.

You are spot on Sierra.
Age according to your birth certificate and body age is two different things - and Covid-19 doesn't pay as much attention to your birth certificate as to your physical fitness.

I work as a paramedic (pretty busy at the moment).
The majority of my patients is elderly but I see an increasing number of younger people who suffers from diseases that usually are reserved the elderly. It's the result of an unhealthy lifestyle - physical inactivity being the biggest issue closely followed by obesity.
On the other hand I sometimes encounter people in their 80's or even 90's who are very fit and perfectly healthy.

I'm sure that a person from the later group stand a better chance of getting through the current situation unscathed than a young person with multiple lifestyle diseases.

PS. Diabetes is an "increased risk factors" because it weakens your immune system. It's a bit more complicated why cardiovascular diseases increase the risk of a poor outcome in case you get infected.

WOW!! everything just went sideways right now as per LA mayor!! Everyone will be on lockdown in homes and if outside have to do social distancing as of 0000 hrs tonight. All non essential businesses will be closed and non essential employees will not be permitted to come to work. I'm not sure about Orange County. My wife and I were driving around today and the streets, malls, bars, restaurants, mom and pop stores are all closed. Gas stations and supermarkets are pretty much the only things opened right now.

I have to get a car smogged tomorrow. I'm hoping my guy will be open. Thank the lord I don't live in LA. All my buddies were laughing at me for stocking up on food and supplies. I have been to dozens of stores in the last few days. Some of them I waited for a truck to pull in. So I'm pretty much set for almost a month of supplies. Only bummer are the fresh vegetables. I rely on the store. No garden at home.

My wife has only one kidney so It's critical to have the proper foods for her. It's been a rough few days me shopping. Shopping for a renal diet was already pretty tough when everything was normal. Now it's critical. Example: Pasta and rice. I had to go to almost 11 different stores just to get enough to sustain a weeks worth of meals. Last store I went to yesterday had pasta with no limit. So I bought 4 boxes and 2 bags of egg noodles.

Certain quantity limits "per Household" are a damn joke!! These women come in with a kid to shop and fill up the carts with way more than the allotted amount. As they wait in line for checkout and out comes the cell phone. At the checkout, husband and all the kids magically show up and make separate purchases.

Governor of California ordered to stay home from tonight on. Go out for food and walking your dogs, ONLY.....

what a way to destroy your civil rights ..... math is still math , the news reported 207000 confirmed cases world wide out of 7 billion plus people . and now you're on lock down .... all restaurant dinning rooms are closed here , and if you're in a group of more than 10 people you are in violation of the governors executive order. (fines then arrest will follow and if it gets to arrest well its all out the window ) but no travel restrictions here in Texas. lock down will not help but to bring that one infected person into close contact with all that are in lock down with them. 160 confirmed cases in Texas out of millions , 3 deaths or maybe its 5 now (got interrupted in watching the news ) odds are with you not getting this . of course it could really take off and become what the doom sayers have wanted and become that "pandemic " . remember what freedom was cause it just went by by.

We live close to a mobile home park for retired folk who normally use their cars all the time, day after day to go back and forth, up to a dozen times a day in some cases. They are the demographic for whom we are self isolating, spending trillions and crashing the world economy. Guess what, they’re still going out in their Honda Jazz’s and Toyota Yaris's with just the same frequency as before. You’d never think there was a pandemic here, that’s for sure. When asked, they just say with considerable bravado that they’re not changing for anything or anyone. Let’s hope that if they become ill that they don’t want a hospital bed that someone more responsible needs.

Madhatter said:

what a way to destroy your civil rights ..... math is still math , the news reported 207000 confirmed cases world wide out of 7 billion plus people . and now you're on lock down .... all restaurant dinning rooms are closed here , and if you're in a group of more than 10 people you are in violation of the governors executive order. (fines then arrest will follow and if it gets to arrest well its all out the window ) but no travel restrictions here in Texas. lock down will not help but to bring that one infected person into close contact with all that are in lock down with them. 160 confirmed cases in Texas out of millions , 3 deaths or maybe its 5 now (got interrupted in watching the news ) odds are with you not getting this . of course it could really take off and become what the doom sayers have wanted and become that "pandemic " . remember what freedom was cause it just went by by.

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Its been a Pandemic for a while dude.

Hi,

I live in s wales uk, i was sent home from work on monday last to self isolate i,m 58 had type 1 diabetes 45 yrs my immune system is terrible if i get a cold i,m in bed for a fortnight, i have a pump fitted and a dexcom g6 blood sensor. 3 days in its driving me mad lol.

but to be honest i,m really worried about going out now, but ha ho lets hope

rob

My trip on the bike this yr end of september was going to BAVARIA to a village called OBERAMMERGAU been there 8-9 times every 10 yrs they do a thing called the passion play saw it in 2010 and 2000, had tickets for this september had a email yesterday that the play that runs from april to september has been cancelled.

don,t think we,ll be getting into europe this yr on the bike.

rob

It's important to remember that the number of confirmed cases just indicates the number of people sick enough to go seek medical attention. Multiply that times at least 10, (and perhaps 100), and you may be getting a better idea of the people that have the virus and are capable of spreading it around.

That is why the lock downs are occurring. You don't know who is contagious and they aren't "sick" yet. The political experts are not experts in viral immunology and infectious disease. If you read some of the expert opinions like Michael Osterholm, they are suggesting that this virus is now airborne. That's a huge step and I don't know if that's over stating things or not. If it is, the transmissibility factor goes way up compared to someone coughing or sneezing in your direction. It also explains the high numbers of close contact contamination we are seeing reported from conventions and other gatherings.

@ballisticexchris - consider that the car getting smogged is not all that important in the grand scheme of things. Certainly not critical. The more you go out, the more exposure you have and the more likely you will bring something home to your wife.

I'm not understanding people, (in general) we've been told to stay inside/apart. Last night I saw more car traffic in general, and on roads that I never see a car at that time of night. We have a chance to stop this bug in it's tracks, and yet we're carrying on as if nothing is wrong. I've also seen videos of people that believe that the pandemic is a hoax. W...T...F...? And, then there's the "panickers". The ones that are hoarding. We need to have a happy medium....take precautions, but don't make matters worse. The news is showing all kinds of people out of work because their businesses have been shut down. Amazon, Coca-Cola, and every grocery store is begging to hire people. Amazon: $15 US, and work from home. Coca-Cola: $19 US, and no experience necessary. Most of the grocery stores are offering $15 US just to put stuff back on the shelves.

In the beginning I was thinking this Corona Virus thing was way over blown but now my opinion is definitely changing, this Is a very serious issue that we all need to pay attention to.