I'll admit I usually feel all is right in the world when this thread starts up each year. Very consistant and predictable. But I do realize, sooner or later, this thread is eventually going to be correct and the Tenere will cease to be sold.
Fewer and fewer dealers carry the bike. Yamaha has shown no interest in making any changes to it in 9 years and counting. To make a competitive bike in the big cc adventure market would take a lot more than a minor refresh. It doesn't seem likely. Between European and Harley bikes, there's not room for a more expensive, under-performer in the market place. Do it big, or don't do it.
At this point, they kinda have the 1200cc budget bike market to themselves. Honestly it's falling into the high-end range of the KLR650 class. A bike that just stays around, doesn't get updated, doesn't have the modern bells and whistles, has a loyal following, the factory tooling was been paid off years ago, can linger on and on without much thought, effort, and no advertising budget. Maybe it will stay around.