I have been waiting for a leaking shaft thread like this to come up again instead of digging up an old one, to post about what happened to me in Arkansas. Towards the end of the relatively technical off road excursion led by WFO Pete that about 8 of us did on 10/22, I got a pretty bad oil leak all over my rear wheel. When I went to fill up at a gas station on the way back to the Hub, it dripped at least 4 drops on the ground, besides it being all over my wheel. Not really wanting to take it to a Dealer to get it fixed, I figured I would just keep monitoring the oil level and fix it myself when I got back home. I purchased a Qt of GL-5 oil at the local Hardware store and put it in my saddlebag. When I got back to the Hub, I used the Pressure Washer that Yamaha of Harrison so graciously left us to use and cleaned my bike, mainly to get all the debris off the rear wheel so it would be easier to monitor the leak as well as figure out exactly where it was coming from. All I could tell after riding it with a clean wheel, was it was coming out from between the wheel and the hub. Not the overflow, fill plug, drain plug, or weep hole in the bottom of the shaft cover. The next day I street rode with Fred Z, Chuck, William42, and Brennan and when we stopped after about 50 miles my wheel was oily again so I checked my oil level, (which still seemed full) and wiped off my wheel. When we got to lunch about 50 miles later, I noticed the wheel hardly had any oil on it this time, so I wiped off what little was on it again. Well guess what...it has never leaked another drop!! I rode it from Arkansas to Alabama, to Georgia, and then back to Florida and nada, nothing, not even a drop! When I got back here, I changed the shaft oil, and have since put 5 to 600 miles on it. I never removed the wheel, but gave the bike a thurough cleaning and it is as if it never happened.
Moral of the story is maybe not be so quick to fix it. I know we have devised many theories of why this seal starts to leak, with most involving dirt getting in the swingarm and compromising the seal. I don't have the answer myself and while I can't argue the point, I can only say that if that were the case, I think countershaft seals on chain drive bikes would fail left and right, which they don't. Have you ever seen the shit those seals deal with? Between grit in the chain lube caked all over them, and some of the shrapnel that gets caught up in there from a good mud bog those things shouldn't last a minute! LOL
Anyhoo, it wouldn't hurt to ride it a while and see if it cures itself.