Lithium-Ion batteries, EVs, and myth busting

Checkswrecks

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That comparison of the F150 and an electric car needs a more data to back it up. How many hp / kw does the F150 consume. dragging a 5000 kg trailer vs How many kw did the electric car consume dragging the same 5000kg trailer. they probably consume the same kW ... the ford in fuel, the electric in electric power. Only the ford would drag it for 5 hours .... and the electric would do it for maybe ...... 1 hour? I think it is not a comparison .... In other words, it is likely that the F150 uses a lot of fuel "only" to drag itself, but those kg that it weighs, you need to be able to drag and brake safely, the towing capacity for which it was designed. The electric car, from your comparison, was probably not designed to drag cargo, therefore it only consumes what it generates its own weight ... and surely it is light and consumes little "obviously"
It is not that I want to generate controversy, but that is why the power of combustion engines is expressed in kW ... it is a way of comparing them.
Towing 5,000 kg trailer? That 22.5 mpg is a 10,000 mile average which is mostly highway and lightly loaded. Obviously, if I wanted a battery powered trailer tower, the e-car would be the wrong tool for the job and none of the e-pickups are being sold. Yet.

So if you want more of an apples to apples, then compare the 221 mpg of my EV to my daughter's stick shift Mazda 3 which is the same size and gets about 38 mpg. The point is that there is less energy extraction needed for the EVs, while not arguing that for a farm in the middle of Argentina, an EV would probably make absolutely no sense at all.

btw - Here's a new article on cost of generation with solar now being cheaper than coal: https://electrek.co/2020/10/13/egeb-solar-now-cheaper-than-coal-will-be-king-of-electricity/
 

RCinNC

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I have no doubt that electric vehicles are going to be replacing the ICE driven ones at some point in the future, unless some other as yet unknown power source is developed that proved to be a better choice. The problem arises that people who aren't well informed about the practical realities of a new technology (i.e. politicians) begin to make decisions about how that technology will be employed. It's ridiculous to make pronouncements about banning a technology at a specific date 15 years down the line and replacing it with a technology that, at this point in time, has no capability of replacing the previous tech.

There's also a component to this that most people don't seem to acknowledge, and that's the idea that a future of electric vehicles will mean simply replacing everyone's ICE driven car with an electric one. I don't think that's necessarily the truth. An efficiently run mass transportation system is far more beneficial to an expanding population than the individual ownership of cars. The idea of not having a personal vehicle seems really alien to me, and I don't think I'd want to live in that world, but an AI controlled mass transportation system of self driven electric (or hydrogen or propane or some combination of technologies) vehicles is a far more efficient use of resources than everyone just swapping their F150 for a Tesla truck and replacing all the gas stations with charging stations. I've seen a projection on line that says by 2035 there will be 2.8 billion vehicles on the planet; in terms of consumption of resources and creation of waste, 2.8 billion vehicles is a hell of an impact on the planet, whether they're powered by gas or electric.
 

HeliMark

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Good stuff... and our governor outlawed new ICE in the state by 2035 with no mention of infrastructure support. Interesting times.
I have been watching all the stuff in California. They can not support what they have now, and what infrastructure they currently have is old and frail. A fair amount of electricity comes from out of state, so as other states require more, the availability will be less. I recall reading several years ago, a "fight" over the amount of power being given to California from other states. They have shut down several nuc plants, and tearing down dams, so my question is, how are they going to do it? Can miles and miles of windmills and solar panels make up the difference?

I am all for EV's, and if my traveling situation allowed it, I wouldn't mind a EV. Of course, here in Tennessee, they love nuc plants.
 

Jlq1969

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, then compare the 221 mpg of my EV to my daughter's stick shift Mazda 3 which is the same size and gets about 38 mpg. The point is that there is less energy extraction needed for the EVs,
This comparison seems more accurate. But let's analyze it. Suppose both vehicles weigh the same. Suppose both vehicles traveled at the same speed, together at par, for 221 miles. Let's not take into account the aerodynamic cx. Both of them. They will need the same energy (Kw) to make that journey. The fuel vehicle will spend (using your numbers) 5.81 gallons. The electric vehicle will only use 1 gallon, the rest of the energy will be provided by the batteries, which will be recharged with: 35% natural gas, 27% carbon, 19% nuclear, 10% renewable, 6% hydroelectric. This is according to their numbers ..... The problem is not the electric vehicle itself, the problem is "with what we are going to recharge its batteries" .... There is another solution, decrease the hp / kw of the vehicles, decrease its weight, reduce its average speed, that its body is a set of photovoltaic cells, etc., in such a way that, to travel those miles, it still needs 1 gallon, but it needs much less kW. This is the main problem, we all want to have electric cars, but we also want them to have the same power as fuel cars.....
This change in mentality should be the first step towards a green planet. "I don't need all this power", "I'm satisfied with half the power" "Now that I'm satisfied with half the power, it's easier to make it electric"
 

ornery

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Sorry,,,,this is tooooo complicated for an old gunsmith. I personally don't believe the world is so badly off that we need to scrap everything and go all electric, mostly because I don't think it will work. Before you slaughter me, I built my own solar system YEARS ago and lived quite off the grid. A house isn't transportation or agriculture.
I understand that there's a lot of folks that want to live like Star Trek, I just think we have a couple of hundred years to go. We can't even figure out how to deal with everything we throw away daily, let alone how to go all electric in transportation. You can pass all the laws you want, but it won't make it happen.
If you travel a lot on motorcycles you're not going to have much joy on an electric one. Personally I believe we have bigger problems that e-vehicles, but that's just my opinion. Sorry,,,I don't mean to muddy the thread. You can throw charts and statistics out there all day, but they aren't the reality of things in day to day life.
Like we say in the gun biz, you can have all the modern hi-cap you want, but a single shot from a S/A Colt 45 will generally settle the discussion. Cheers!!
 

Sierra1

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. . . . its more like the old Yamaha Big Wheel or Honda Fat Cat.
Ok, speaking of a "Fat Cat" motorcycle. In the early '70s, I remember a neighbor kid have what I remember being a yellow "Fat Cat" motorcycle. The decal had a picture of a black cat, and the tires were huge, to the point of being flotation tires. Definitely not a Honda or Yamaha. Wikipedia says they were built in the mid '80s. They also don't look like what I remember. We were living in Southern Michigan at the time. Any of y'all ever seen one, or ridden one like I described?
 
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Madhatter

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the new prez said under his admin there would be 500000 new charging stations across America . there are more cars than that in the county next door . millions of older homes are not equipped to handle a home charger with out major upgrades . what about apartment dwellers and there cars ? pipe dream of the wacky class .
when one can pull up to a station and recharge their car fully in a few minutes and have 400 mile range ,then this thing might work.
 

scott123007

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Ok, speaking of a "Fat Cat" motorcycle. In the early '70s, I remember a neighbor kid have what I remember being a yellow "Fat Cat" motorcycle. The decal had a picture of a black cat, and the tires were huge, to the point of being flotation tires. Definitely not a Honda or Yamaha. Wikipedia says they were built in the mid '80s. They also don't look like what I remember. We were living in Southern Michigan at the time. Any of y'all ever seen one, or ridden one like I described?
Rokon Trailbreaker?
 

nondairycreamer

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the new prez said under his admin there would be 500000 new charging stations across America . there are more cars than that in the county next door . millions of older homes are not equipped to handle a home charger with out major upgrades . what about apartment dwellers and there cars ? pipe dream of the wacky class .
when one can pull up to a station and recharge their car fully in a few minutes and have 400 mile range ,then this thing might work.
Similar arguments were made during the transition from horses, mules and oxen. This transition will be much faster especially in forward planning countries, the ones that have media that educate with the truth instead of lies, countries with governments that plan for a better future instead of protecting the money flow to those that live only for the present. With the exception of Exxon and Chevron even the oil industry is working to fit in and be part of the new economy. We will rebuild infrastructure, for decades this has been discussed, and charging stations will proliferate. Battery technology is still an infant compared to what is coming. For kids with an interest in science the future is very bright.
 

Checkswrecks

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the new prez said under his admin there would be 500000 new charging stations across America . there are more cars than that in the county next door . millions of older homes are not equipped to handle a home charger with out major upgrades . what about apartment dwellers and there cars ? pipe dream of the wacky class .
when one can pull up to a station and recharge their car fully in a few minutes and have 400 mile range ,then this thing might work.
Don't knock them till you have one.

If you lived in a more remote place in Texas I agree that an electric may not yet make sense, but count 10 chargers near you between Austin and Marcos. I have an 8 year old plug-in hybrid and the power panel in my house is maxed so I just charge on the 110V outlet which gives about 5 miles of range per hour, so no problem getting enough charge overnight. Finding a fast charger on trips will give about 75-80% charge in roughly 45 minutes even in my "antique."

The new cars are coming out with higher voltage systems so they can charge faster. Toyota should come out later this year with a 10 minute recharge on over 200 miles of range. fwiw - 250 miles seems to be the minimum range target for new cars and over 350-400 seems to be the target for the flock of new pickups about to hit the market.

Cost-wise, running electric costs me about 1/5 as much to run the car in total than my daughter's Mazda with the gas engine. Since the Gummint owns a quarter million vehicles and paid $4.2 BILLLION dollars in 2018 to operate them, the cost savings of going electric is going to be substantial even with the up-front cost for new charging stations. It's also why the Post Office, Amazon, and every other delivery is switching to e-vans.

Battery vehicles cost more to build but the cost of batteries and solar are dropping so fast, the projected point where it costs the same is only 4 years out. Today I can go to a local Chevy dealer and buy a left-over 2020 Bolt EV for $20,000 and never need to pay for gas or an oil change.
 

AVGeek

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Infrastructure is certainly the biggest hurdle to widespread adoption. I had a chance to drive the preproduction Mustang Mach E last year when I took a job as a test driver, and there really is no comparison between ICE and EV. The hardest part for me was that we were assigned a set route, with a recharge stop in the middle. Since there was only one charger and 5 vehicles, and it took about 45 minutes to charge up enough to finish the route, it made for a very long break.

Admittedly, I don't want to see ICE go completely away, though that seems to be the direction we are headed. I am also concerned about how we generate power here in the US, (remember Enron?) and whether or not we have cleaned it up enough to truly reduce our pollution output.
 

Sierra1

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Don't knock them till you have one. . . .
I want one. My wife worries about getting stranded. Even the cheapest Tesla has at least a 200 mile range. She doesn't drive anywhere near that far per day. The 110v outlet would easily recharge to full overnight. Less maintenance, not zero, is huge incentive for me. Personally, I don't think gas powered rides will ever completely go away. . . . at least not for several generations anyway.
 

Don in Lodi

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Does anybody know where else in the US that they can strip mine more lithium? Going to be serious shortages on the mineral. Looks like they leach the mineral out of a salt flat in Nevada, that's the only source here that I see.
 

EricV

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Today I can go to a local Chevy dealer and buy a left-over 2020 Bolt EV for $20,000 and never need to pay for gas or an oil change.
That is true in VA or FL. Not so much in the rest of the country. I can't help but wonder how a dealer sells a car with an MSRP of $38k for $20k? Someone is losing money, or the profit margin is far larger than we have been led to believe.

I always found EVs to be appealing in the 70's thru 90's. I would have been an early adopter, except every time I really got serious about it, they couldn't meet my needs at that time. Even from a bicycle commuter standpoint, the EV would have created a traffic hazard for it's speed up hills, whereas the bicycle at least could ride slowly on the side/shoulder of the road and not impede traffic.

Now we have mainstream EVs with mainstream performance, but the price point is higher than the comparable ICE vehicle. The left over Bolt is a good counter to that. We have friends in VA that drove out to MS to buy a motorcycle from us in their Tesla and they are accustomed to the EV ways. After picking up the bike, the very next stop was a Tesla Supercharger and a 30-40 minute pause to charge.

The problem with a $20k Bolt is the $4k used ICE vehicle that does the same thing, requires no new infrastructure and will last just as long if I take care of it. Will I pay more in maintenance? Car to car, yes. Will it exceed the $16k in purchase price difference over the life of the vehicle? Probably not. Could I easily spend more than that? Sure, if I wanted to, or bought an old British car. ;)

I believe at some point cars will be largely regulated out of the average person's life. Most people won't be able to afford the vehicle or the taxes and other costs associated with it. This is the Government's traditional method for removing something from the marketplace. With AI self driving vehicles, it will be more common to call for a car when you need one than to own one. Even in rural areas. A return to living, (closer to), where you work will be part of this gradual process.

High density urban dwellers already do this now. A lot of the younger generation kids I know in large cities don't own cars or want them. Many of those same people don't want to own a house either. After the housing market crash in the early 2000's it's hard to argue with the monetary points they present on that issue. They would rather spend money doing things than tie it up in possessions. This, coming from kids with $3k laptops and $1k smart phones that pound out code on the floor of their apartment and are only employed via contract basis for specific projects. Some never having had a steady job.

The flip side is the blue collar workers that need reliable basic personal transportation to get to work, rain or shine, 5-7 days a week. And don't have places to plug in a EV at work or home w/o running an extension cord out the window. Many in places w/o infrastructure for good public transit. The EV is just a pipe dream for them, and not one they see in their near future.

I'm not in the demographic that is being aimed at by the marketplace. I own my house, have no job and keep vehicles far longer on average than they would like me to. The marketplace is aiming at the "I have to have the latest thing" buyers with an income stream that supports their fantasy that they can just have payments forever and never pay anything off, just trade it in on the next new thing. I know kids with phone contracts where they automatically get the next new model phone as soon as it comes out, regardless of how often that is. I'm surprised Tesla hasn't offered that kind of purchase plan yet.
 

VRODE

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As someone who has long railed against electric vehicles, I have to admit I'm coming around. My only real concern is battery life/mileage. I'm confident that these will improve, but it'll have to fit my needs easily for it to happen. Maybe in the next 10 years or so I figure. I'll keep an open mind (and a closed wallet) for now.
 

Checkswrecks

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As someone who has long railed against electric vehicles, I have to admit I'm coming around. My only real concern is battery life/mileage. I'm confident that these will improve, but it'll have to fit my needs easily for it to happen. Maybe in the next 10 years or so I figure. I'll keep an open mind (and a closed wallet) for now.
Life of batteries was a concern and can still be on a few vehicles. The air-cooled Gen1 Nissan Leaf sucked while my 8 year old Chevy still has 94% capacity and there are some Teslas doing shuttle service with more than 300,000 miles getting over 90%.

Eric -

No question that buying a $500 beater makes economic sense IF the owner can do the maintenance, rather than having to pay for it, and the supply of inexpensive beater cars decreases over time. I guess we could assume 10 years to hit 100-150,000 miles, at which point most people start thinking about reliability versus cost of replacement.

The EVs do have a higher up-front cost, but again, subtract roughly 3/4 of the operating costs and you can figure out at how many miles the gas and maintenance would cost more. With volume production of EVs this is going to shift faster to the EVs and you can already buy a 4 year old used 65,000 mile Chevy Bolt near here for $14,000.
 
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